Poland Between A Rock And A Hard Place
Poland is getting pressure from the EU and Russia at the same time.
The EU will be considering a budget that will cause Poland to lose a large amount of money from the EU. Poland, of course, is not happy with that proposal and is working with the other new members of the EU to lobby against the budget cuts that will help them.
At the same time the Russians are squeezing Poland on trade. Meats and vegetables have been banned from being exported to Russia from Poland. Now that ban has been extended to wooden products and other goods. The ban corresponds to 8 percent of the total value of Polish exports to Russia and is likely to cause multi-million dollar losses for Polish companies.
Poland has a problem on both fronts that make finding a solution difficult.
For the past couple years, many of the Polish delegates to the EU have been outspokenly critical of the EU. The opinions they voiced in the EU Parliament were less than well received.
During the recent election campaign, many were advocating a tougher stance be taken with the EU to get more money. Others even wanted to renegotiate the EU accession treaty in order to get a better deal.
After the elections, EU delegates from the Polish LPR party put up an anti-abortion exhibition at the EU Parliament that caused a row. The EU ordered that the exhibition be taken down.
The general attitude toward the EU by the now ruling government and many members of the Sejm has been confrontational. Rather than working as diplomats, they have been posturing themselves in a position of righteousness. They have been assuming that the EU owes Poland something.
While the EU parliamentarians were causing trouble on the Western Front, other politicians were causing trouble on the Eastern Front. Getting involved in the Ukrainian Orange Revolution did not, of course, make the Russian happy. But President Elect Kaczynski's "Bear Baiting" and overt criticism of Russia did not help.
So Russia waits until Kaczynski is to take office as President of Poland. Russia let's the new Sejm and Polish Government get semi-settled and hits Poland with rolling bans of exports to Russia.
Now the Kaczynski government has to turn to the EU for help on the Eastern Front. And it has to turn for help at the same time it is working against the EU budget on the Western Front and with a record of not treating the EU other than a source of money.
What allies in its battles does Poland have? Poland supported the US effort in Iraq as did the UK. So the UK might seem like an ally, since the other major EU members are not happy with Poland's support for the US effort. But the budget is being proposed by the UK.
The major powers, other than the UK, also support the budget cuts for Poland. And they are not happy with Poland's cooperation with the US. And they are not happy with Poland's attitude toward the EU. So it is not likely that Poland can expect much there.
Unless, of course, Poland makes concessions. Since the battle on the Eastern Front cannot be won without the support of the EU, it appears that Poland is going to have to give in to the EU.
They should give in to the EU and cut a deal for help on the Eastern Front. They cannot win a battle with the EU. The big powers control the money and Poland is not going to beat them. And Poland is in no position to take on the Russian without the EU.
So Poland is in a squeeze. It has been biting the hands that feed it. Now it has to pay the piper. The loss of a lot of EU funding is probably just the beginning.
Posted 30 November, 2005
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