Why Kaczynski is not the prime minister.
Posted 25 November, 2005
After the Polish elections, the head of the party that received the most votes declined to be the prime minister of Poland. The reason most stated by political commentators is that the Kaczynski brothers do not think that the country is ready for one twin brother to be the President of Poland and the other twin brother to be the Prime Minister of Poland.
That reasoning seems logical, but is there something else that is the real reason. If one looks at the actions and statements of the current prime minister, one might start to see another reason that is a logical if not more so. Surely the number of statements and actions to date are limited, but a pattern seems to be developing that should be watched.
During the election Kaczynski made a lot of promises. The promises were those of a populist who was giving away the world and who was going to have Poland stand up to the EU, if not renegotiate treaties with it. The promises led the leader of one of the parties on the left to comment that it was surprising to see a party of the right proposing a social platform of the left.
But now Kaczynski's party seems to be abandoning those promises and going off on another tack.
Was the plan from the beginning to tell the people one thing to get the vote and then to do something else when in power? Did they plan to use their anticipated coalition partner as the fall guy for their real intentions for the economy? Did Kaczynski not want to be prime minister so that he would not have to answer questions about his promises and the results?
Just look at what has transpired to date.
Kaczynski promised some 3 million new homes to be built. Now the prime minister says that it cannot be done because there is no room in the budget and the homes will not be built.
Kaczynski promised to slow down privatization but now the prime minister predicts an increase in privatization revenue of 5 billion zloty.
Kaczynski promised a social Poland which people took to mean something that included more protective or at least continuation of the current labor codes. But now the prime minister says that changes will be made to make it more attractive to invest in Poland.
Kaczynski filled the air with rhetoric not complimentary of the EU. Now the prime minister is a lead proponent of the new EU budget to the point that he is lobbying Prime Minister Blair for its passage. Likewise Poland suddenly needs the EU to help it with the meat ban by Russia. Poland almost looks like a puppy dog rather than a tiger representing Poland's interests.
And now the current prime minister has announced that he wants to be like Margaret Thatcher.
Is this primie minister acting on his own without Kaczynski's approval? Maybe but maybe not. Maybe he fooled Kaczynski. But then maybe he is doing what Kaczynski wants.
If you look back at the coalition talks between the Civic Platform and now ruling PiS, the Civic Platform complained that PiS had no written plan. They had only election brochures. Now we may know why! Maybe they did not want to tell people what they really wanted to do.
Can you imagine Kaczynski as prime minister announcing that he wants to be like Margaret Thatcher? And can you even see him doing those things that the current prime minister is doing? The press would take him apart.
Now if the current prime minister continues down this path, one may assume that he has Kaczynski's approval and that this path was what was planned. If Kaczynski reigns him in, then the story is different.
If the path is the chosen one, we can think that the real reason that Kaczynski does not want to be prime minister is not because his brother is to be the president.
The country will just have to wait and see.
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