Government Dissatisfaction
by Gary C. Granai
MasterPage
Today I have combined three pieces that are pointing in the same direction. The first is simply an indication of what the people currently think about the various institutions in Poland.
The second, a survey, seems to indicate that people are not happy with the new systems in Eastern Europe. Of course we have to be careful of survey results. A good researcher can ask the questions in a way that he gets the results that he wants. But on the other hand we can not discount the results because we do not want to believe them. So we have to look at them and think.
The third piece is a cut from a summary of a conference. A "cut from a summary of a conference" has to be considered to be taken out of context, etc. But I think that if you have been reading what Mr. Kolodko has been saying for some time you will see how the three pieces fit.
And this newsletter has been constantly saying that many of the people of Poland have been left behind. We, Western business interests, have privatized people out of work. For many we have replaced public stagnation with private poverty. We have benefited the economy from a macroeconomic point of view. But the micro economies of many small people are in disastrous condition.
Why all the strikes, demonstrations and dissatisfaction? Because we privatized and left too many people out of the game.
So now we must move forward and help them. We must retrain. We must demonstrate corporate responsibility and step up to the plate and do something of substance. Not talk. Action! There is an undercurrent out there. We have to watch what it is saying lest we turn out to be the "Harvard Boys of Poland".
In future newsletters we will be presenting examples of what some of you are doing and give you opportunities to help.
So please read the interesting material that follows.
Gary C Granai
THE EDITOR
Gazeta Wyborcza, 28 July
The Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek and his cabinet have the worst rating in the popularity polls since elections. Also the popularity of the Sejm, Senate and President dropped. That means that the better results reported in June were just temporary. In June right after the Pope's visit there were more supporters (36 percent) of the government than opponents (31 percent). Now the situation is the opposite: 30 percent is supporting the government and 35 is against it. The Prime Minister's popularity dropped from 37 to 33 percent and at the same time the number of his opponents increased from 42 to 51 percent.
Majority of Eastern Europeans Regret Changes in Political Systems
Budapest MTI in English
23 July 1999
Budapest, 23 July (MTI) -- A recent survey into attitudes concerning the political changes following the collapse of Eastern-block regimes in 1989 shows that almost two-thirds of those questioned in eight countries are dissatisfied with the political change.
The survey, conducted by the market research institute Fessel Gfk in the spring of 1999, and carried in the daily Napi Gazdasag, involved personal questioning of 1,000 adults in each of the following eight countries: Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Russia.
Twenty-three percent of Hungarians were satisfied regarding the change of system, while 66 percent were disappointed. The remaining 11 percent had not expected positive changes.
Bulgarians and Romanians were closest to the Hungarians' opinion. The ratio of those disappointed and those satisfied was 65 percent to 24 percent in Bulgaria and 69 percent to 22 percent in Romania.
Satisfaction was at its lowest, at 4 percent, in Ukraine, and the greatest, at 26 percent, in Poland. It was 20 percent in Russia, 18 percent in Slovakia, and 17 percent in the Czech Republic.
Disappointment was at its greatest in Ukraine, at 76 percent, and the lowest in Russia, at 59 percent. Sixty-one percent of the people expressed dissatisfaction about the change of system in Poland, 67 percent in Slovakia, and 72 percent in the Czech Republic.
The percentage of the very disappointed is lowest in Hungary, at 15 percent, followed by Poland, at 18 percent, the Czech Republic, at 19 percent, Slovakia at 21 percent, Russia and Romania at 22 percent each, and Ukraine, at 36 percent.
Item 2
From: "Russia: What Went Wrong? Which Way Now?" conference organized by the Jamestown Foundation on 9-10 June 1999 asked: what went wrong in Russia since 1991 and why?
Grzegorz Kolodko, former deputy prime minister and minister of finance of Poland, singled out the "Washington consensus" for criticism. Shock therapy had worked no better in Poland than in Russia. The reason was that its focus on stabilization, liberalization and privatization neglected the essential importance of a gradual process of institution building. Kolodko presented a fifteen-point "Plan for Russia" which called for Russia to (1) undertake radical action against organized crime; (2) ensure financial stabilization; (3) reform its public finances; (4) encourage small businesses; (5) restructure large, obsolete enterprises; (6) aim for agricultural self- sufficiency; (7) reform foreign trade procedures; (8) invest in human capital; (9) reform its legal system. Meanwhile, Kolodko urged the Western world to (10) partially forgive Russia's foreign debt; (11) admit Russia to the World Trade Organization; (12) sponsor a package of regional development programs under UNDP auspices; (13) provide international financing to upgrade Russia's roads, railways and telecommunications; (14) provide World Bank help to build social safety nets; (15) sponsor OECD advice on how to make Russia's institutional and legal frameworks more investor-friendly.
Kolodko recognized that the success of this program would depend on the achievement of a political consensus in Moscow that is currently lacking. He urged that, rather than Western experts, experts from Central and Eastern Europe should be sent to Russia since they have first-hand experience of the problems of transition.
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