How effective is the preparation for bird flu?
Governments around the world are finally realizing that it is not possible to stop the spread of bird flu. It is not possible to stop birds from flying and the birds will spread the bird flu regardless of what governments try to do.
If the bird flu mutates and man becomes a vector the model for protecting against the spread of bird flu by birds will not apply. It will not be a matter of controlling the birds but one of controlling the local population. It is not clear that the governments are properly planning for local population control.
If a large portion of the population become sick it is very easy to predict that certain things will happen.
For the purpose of discussion let us assume that the bird flu mutates into a strain that causes a high death rate. It may be the worst case, but examining that postulated mutation may lead us to problems that will occur regardless of whether a high death rate will occur or not.
It can be expected that if a case of the mutated bird flu would be found in any town in the countryside that some form of quarantine would be put in place. That is nice to say but how would the quarantine be enforced?
Would access to and egress from the town be effectively stopped? Would journalists be allowed to enter and leave the town? Would more medical personnel be allowed to enter or leave the town? How would the town be quarantined?
Would a local police force be able to enforce a quarantine? Would the local police force even show up for work if people were dying around them? Would the military be used to enforce a quarantine?
If people were dying in large numbers, would there be and increased desertion rate from the military and the police forces by people who would want to go home to try to protect their families?
Would the local hospitals and medical care personnel be capable of handling the increased patient load? If a large portion of these people are terminally ill and very likely to transmit a terminal illness to the medical personnel, how many of the medical personnel would even report to work? Would the world around us degenerate into an every man for himself society?
How would people get food? Would people report to the food markets for work? If a large portion of them were sick, will the markets be able to support operations? Would there be deliveries to the markets? Would the people loot markets?
And what about communications? Will telephone workers report to their workstations to provide service? Will Internet service providers be able to maintain service if their people do not report to work? How affective will be the TV and radio stations with reduce staffs?
It always seems that people assume that the government and its full administrative and communications capabilities will remain intact during a time of crisis. The hurricane Katrina fiasco in New Orleans showed how the breakdown of local administration could be disastrous to the community. Were a crisis to occur that saw the deaths or incapacitating illness of a large number of the administrative personnel, would the local populace be capable of self help?
This particular strain of bird flu may not mutate. But if it is as scientists expect, eventually a flu will mutate and a pandemic will occur. It will not be the governments that can solve this problem on their own. It will be the local population that will be carrying out plans provided to them by the government.
Governments lay claim to being ready. But if they are ready they should the making public the disaster plans and coordinating training efforts that train local populations to cope with the problems that they know will occur during a pandemic.
Until the governments publicize their flu disaster plans, no one is ready and the population stands in danger.
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