Interceptor Test
Poland, Iran, Russia and the Polish Missile Shield Base
Warsaw, Poland - 11 December, 2007 The missile base proposed to be built in Poland requires the Polish Prime Minister to weigh counterbalancing data, some of which is equivocal and some of which is based on predictions of the future. His decision affects not so much the protection of Poland but more the protection of NATO and US assets in Europe and the assertion of his country's independence of Russian domination.
The missile shield, announced as a system to protect Europe from rogue missile attacks from countries such as, but not limited to, Iran, is years from completion. Not only does the base not exist, the interceptor missiles don't work yet.
In the mean time, Iran is moving forward on its missile development program. It has recently announced that it has a new missile. The billed missile range would,if the missile works as claimed, give Iran the possibility of hitting Europe, including the chance that it might hit both Warsaw and Moscow. Polish Missile Defense - Is Poland Now In Range Of Iran's Missiles?
Even though Moscow is possibly within range, Russia objects to the base in Poland with some glaring inconsistencies that lead some to question the real reason behind Russia's objection. They question why that even though Putin announced the deployment of a new missile with a warhead that can evade any interceptor, Russia objects to the missile base in Poland on some theory that in the future the base could be used to intercept Russian missiles.
Additionally, Russia's objection to the missile defense system as being something that could be used against Russia's overwhelming military might also appears not even credible to its own military.
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On March 2, Russian Air Force Commander in Chief Colonel General Vladimir Mikhailov said that the possible deployment of a U.S. radar site in the Caucasus is of no real concern to Russia, RIA Novosti and ITAR-TASS reported. "We have everything necessary in order to respond appropriately to such deployments. They have lots of money, so let them spend it," he said. - Russian Fear Of Missiles In Poland Is A Fear Of Looking Weak To The Polish People
In the face of Russian objections, Tusk has pledged to patch up relations with Moscow. He says his Cabinet is ready to continue missile defense talks with Washington but wants to reassure Moscow that Poland sees the project as part of a pan-European defense system against any threat of a "rogue" nuclear attack.
But now the recent events in Russia shift may shift Tusk's, as well as Russia's, emphasis. Poland's future relations with Russia may not be as rosy as Tusk hopes.
Russia watchers are expressing some strong disapprovals of what is happening there.
I do not ordinarily approve of referring to the goings on in Russia, as Alexander Golts does in today's Moscow Times when analyzing Russia's pathetic efforts to contest a new cold war, with the term "farce" because that implies some level of jocularity, and millions of lives are at stake. Yet, it's hard to find any other word in this case to describe what has occurred in Russia over the past fortnight. - "The Little Bear Stumbles out of Hibernation"
And as Russia changes, the US position may be changing.
By publishing the US National Intelligence (NIE) report that concludes that Iran is not on a path to building nuclear weapons, though widely criticised as incorrect, the US Government has now shifted its stance on the threat from Iran in a move that could be a signal to Europe that Europe should look out for its own defense interests.
The missile base in Poland is already in trouble in the US Congress where funding for its construction has been denied. Now those behind this move have more leverage in the form of the NIE report to keep the base from being built.
But Tusk wants to demand more of the US to allow the US to defend Europe in an situation where not everyone in the US seems to agree that they should pay for defending people who don't want to pay for their own defense.
The NIE report may mean that if Europe wants the defense system, it will be up to Europe to convince Poland to put the base in place. And it may mean that the US is using a fade play to shift the costs to Europe.
So Tusk may not be in position to bargain hard with the US since the powers in Congress already are against funding the base. It just might not be wise to try to get more money from people who don't want to give any now.
There is another issue that is generally left unstated.
That is the border issue.
Putting a US base in Poland establishes firmly that Poland is not under the sphere of influence of Russia.
History has shown that Poland cannot depend on Europe to defend it. And given the current military might of the countries in Europe, future defense ability might be plausibly questioned. Germany - The Soft Underbelly of Europe
But a base in Poland is a US asset that will be defended by the US against any aggressor. It fixes Poland position as not under the Russian sphere of influence. That is if the US Congress agrees to build it.
So Tusk has to balance many evils before him. Is it better to have a foreign military base that is not wanted by his countrymen or take his chances with a rogue missile and/or a resurgent Russia? What are his risks and rewards?
Tusk is in a difficult position. He will surely make a decision that he thinks best for Poland. And whatever that decision is, there will be unhappy people and long term consequences for Poland.
Its not just about Poland. Its about Poland, Europe, Iran and Russia with the US waiting for a decision and having to make a decision of its own.
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