Iranian Missiles
Can Reach Poland
Polish Missile Defense - Is Poland Now In Range Of Iran's Missiles?
Warsaw, Poland - 29 November, 2007 As Poland's new Prime Minister is rethinking his country's participation in the US proposed missile defense shield, Iran has announced development of the "Ashoura" missile that, if the announcement is true, puts the Polish Capital City of Warsaw within range of a missile strike from Iran.
Not only is Warsaw is in range. The missile can also reach Moscow.
Development of a missile has been rumored for some time. And Iran has now confirmed the rumor.
"Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Muhammad-Najjar announced on Tuesday that his country had developed a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers, capable of reaching Israel and US Army bases in the Middle East." See http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546736219&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Iranian missile threatens Moscow
In the past many of Iran's weapons development claims have not been independently verified and the current claim falls into that class. http://apnews.myway.com/article/20071127/D8T611RG0.html Iran Says It's Produced New Missile .
In June, 2007, Doug Richardson, the editor of the London-based defense journal "Jane's Missiles And Rockets," commented on the state of Iran missile systems as it was known to exist at that time.
In order to get to Moscow you would have to get a missile of 2,000 kilometers range. We hear rumors of such developments from Iran but nothing very firm. We honestly don't have any real hard information on Iran's future missile plans, we've heard talk of something allegedly called the Shahab-3B; the story is rather vague. The reports talked about 2,000-2,500-kilometer range. There've been reports [about] Shahab-4 [but] the Iranians have said there is no such thing as Shahab-4. We have seen some pronouncement that there is a Shahab-4 but it's not a missile, it's going to be a satellite-launch vehicle. So there's just no hard information. We know they are doing a lot of rocket development work, 2,500 would not quite get you to Rome, it would probably get you to Zagreb, Budapest, you'd get most of Slovakia, it would get you a bit into the Czech Republic [and] up to Warsaw, Minsk, and not quite St. Petersburg. See href="http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/6/91D940D7-C4EE-4897-988B-B4D19677DAF9.html Defense Expert Discusses Iran's Missile Capabilities
The new Ashoura missile is thought to have a range of 2000 to 2500 kilometers.
As Iran develops its missiles and nuclear capabilities of one sort or another, Europe has not done much to develop a defense.
The state of the placement of the missile shield in Poland is far from settled. The Tusk Government is going to be talking with the Russians and West Europeans before it makes a decision. And it wants to negotiate with the US for more benefits for allowing the base to be on Polish soil.
The Democrats in the US Government have cut funding for the proposed location in Poland. So even if Poland decides to go forward, there may not be money for either the base or more benefits.
Tusk wants to discuss the system with the Europeans because he sees NATO as very important. But NATO is little more than an augmented US force whose assets in Europe the interceptors are intended to defend. And NATO has already noted the importance of the missile shield but has taken the position that if the United States wants to pay for it, why should the Europeans? Poland's Choice On Missile Shield Is A Decision On Polish Defense
As Poland and Europe dither, Iran moves forward.
Russia, whose Government has been strenuously opposing the defense shield location in Poland is 2469 kilometers from Tehran. Now it is also within range of a missile attack by Iran.
If Iran has an effective delivery system, it is a matter of adding an appropriate payload that it might be able to buy. And it might not have to look far to get what it wants. The Israeli strike on the supposed nuclear weapons facility in Syria may have cut off one option. The Israeli "Nuclear Reactor Strike" and Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction But with billions of dollars in oil money, Iran can well afford to get attention elsewhere.
Experts also believe Iran is developing the Shahab-4 missile, thought to have a range between 1,200 and 1,900 miles, that would enable it to hit much of Europe. And some sources claim that the Russians are helping a solid-fuel design team at the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group in Teheran develop a 2,800-mile (4,505.2 kilometers) missile, capable of reaching London and Paris, and a 6,300-mile [10,000 km] range missile that could strike cities in the eastern United States. These reports are poorly documented
To Europe, Iran is like a thief with an empty gun. If the gun is pointed at you, do you assume it is loaded or not? And if the thief is as unstable as Iran's President seems to be, should you be more concerned? Should you even take him serious? And who should you depend on to protect you from him?
Russia and Poland now have to decide who and what is the bigger danger.
Russia will lose face and its domination of Poland with a US base on Polish soil. But it thinks that the US could eventually use the base against Russia.
If Poland agrees to the base it will have US backing against Russian domination and rogue missiles. But it will not make Russia happy.
The Iranian missiles may or may not be a clear and present danger. And Poland has to look after its own interests. The Polish Government has a tough decision to make in sorting out which are most important.
Iran has made its decision. It says that developing Iran's new missile is an important achievement.
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