New Polish Elections Not Guaranteed - Poland Outlook
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In order to have new elections in Poland, enough members of the Polish Parliament must vote to for self-dissolution of the Parliament. But with the polls showing that many Parliamentarians will likely lose their jobs, there is the possibility that they might instead choose a new prime minister.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski
Needs Votes
For the vote to dissolve the Parliament be favored, Kaczynski will have to convince members of his party that it is better to chance losing their jobs and financial security than to choose a new Prime Minister.
Polls in Warsaw are particularly worrisome to Law And Justice politicians. They show the Civic Platform leading by as much as 50% to 25% in some districts.
Countrywide polls show Civic Platform with a lead of as much as 36% to 22%.
If the vote follows the polls there will be many unemployed Law And Justice politicians and their cohorts that were given politically appointed jobs.
Polls are not the only thing not favorable to Kaczynski. His party is in disarray. His ability to dictate seems to be eroding.
He has been making enemies of his own party members through firings and threats. There are current battles between the Minister of Justice Ziobro and Zbigniew Wasserman, Poland's Minister for Security Services. The former Minister of Interior Kaczmarek is also battling Ziobro. Other Ministers are under investigation for various indiscretions.
According to Minister of Education Roman Giertych, who says he and his parties members will be dismissed from the Government today, Kaczynski wants to fill the Government with those who were members of his old party Porozumienie Centrum. Notably lacking is any mention of the people who were part of ZCHN.
Former Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, marginalized by Kaczynski, is part of the group of people who belonged to ZCHN. They make up a large part of the Law And Justice Membership. If Giertych is right, it may be that Kaczysnki is marginalizing them also.
But in spite of his marginalization, Marcinkiewicz remains, according to a recent poll, the most popular prime minister since 1989, as compared to Kaczynski who was rated the worst.
Marcinkiewicz may see this as the right time to step back into politics. And if he chooses not to do so, another may take the opportunity to split out from the Law And Justice Party and make an agreement with the Civic Platform to choose a new prime minister.
Or someone else may see another way to avoid elections so that they can keep their jobs.
Kaczynski needs the elections to avoid the penalties imposed on his party for election law violations. See Polish Election Laws May Bring Down Poland's Government And to have new elections he needs to convince people to take a chance on being unemployed. They have to do what is in his self interest and not theirs.
And that is not guaranteed.
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