Jaroslaw Kaczynski
No Gambler
Early Polish Elections Are Unlikely In Spite Of Poland's Difficulties
Classified Polnews
Warsaw, Poland 10 July, 2007 There is little likelihood that Poland will see early elections even if the current Polish Government Coalition breaks up. There is too much at risk for most of the political parties to agree to early elections.
The political parties Samoobrona, headed by just fired Deputy Prime Minister Andrzej Lepper, and League of Polish Families, headed by Roman Giertych, are the key to early elections.
Currently, each of them would, according to polls, get less than 5% of the vote. That would mean that none of their members would join the new Parliament.
So to preserve their current positions, even if they are not part of a coalition, they are likely to do the bidding of Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski under the threat of early elections. Kaczynski, known as a brutal taskmaster, can probably rely on them to vote as he wishes.
Kaczynski appears ready to test this premise. He already said that he would not make a decision on early elections until after the summer vacation. It will give him time to see if he can herd the people as he wishes.
Lepper has a second pressure point. The Civic Platform has put before the Parliament a bill that would bar anyone with a criminal conviction from serving in the Parliament. Kaczynski's party has a similar bill but with a proviso that would make it effective against crimes committed after the bill was in force. Kaczynski's bill would allow Lepper to serve in the Parliament while the Civic Platform bill would not.
Practically speaking, Lepper has to watch his step with Kaczynski lest Kaczynski have the Civic Platform bill be the one passed as law.
It takes a vote of 2/3 of the Parliament to self dissolve. That required that a good portion of Kaczynski's party would have to vote, along with the opposition parties, for dissolution of the Parliament. As long as Kaczynski can control Lepper and Giertych, he is not likely to chance facing the voters. Kaczynski is too smart a politician to be a gambler.
The polls are too close to say which party, Civic Platform or the Law And Justice party would prevail in an election. So for Kaczynski to go for new elections would be to gamble on losing.
Self interest will dominate all decisions.
Lepper and Giertych want to stay in the Parliament.
Kaczynski will not gamble as long as he can control Lepper and Giertych. He will probably be able to run a minority government.
As some commentators say, the whole discussion is diverting attention from problems that Kaczynski is having on other fronts.
Elections are unlikely. But there will be a lot more press and discussion.
Update: The Coalition will not bre
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