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Poland; Will the Polish Economy Stagnate Or Roll Over?
Warsaw, Poland 12 March, 2007 Money is pouring into Poland. It is being sent back by Polish workers who have gone West to work. EU funds are being used for many different projects. Investors see Poland as a place to make money. And suddenly some economists have come to the realization that the Polish economy cannot maintain growth without workers.
But you say it has to have workers. Unemployment is reported over 15%.
Huge numbers of Polish workers have gone West. Builders can't find workers. Builder's have to wait up to two months to get basic building materials from factories that don't have enough workers to produce them.
52% of the large companies surveyed in Poland say they cannot find enough workers.
Police are going West where they can get paid up to four times what they make in Poland. Polish Policemen in PSNI
The labor shortage is not confined to Poland. Car makers in other Central European countries can't find enough workers. Central Europe car makers face labor shortage
Farmers need workers from the East because there are not enough workers in Poland. 150000 Ukrainians work illegally in Poland and the Government does not seem to worry about it. http://www.pulsbiznesu.pl/news,145,fd6da882-197b-4f69-8d68-f063e5a14a0b.aspx 150,000 Ukrainians work illegally in Poland
Poland's birth rate is the lowest in the EU. It is in a state of demographic decline. The declining birth rate observed for years has prompted the government to come up with a long-term pro-family program, which is expected to encourage women to have more kids.http://www.pulsbiznesu.pl/news,145,cfb00083-025b-4900-b7e7-86b37b29b6c8.aspx Demographics bomb is ticking http://www.polskieradio.pl/zagranica/gb/dokument.aspx?iid=49312 Polish birth rate lowest in EU
Having more kids is likely to help the airlines. Airlines transporting workers out of Poland are touted as being in a growth industry. They think that the number of people leaving will grow. See Growth Market for Airlines:Cheap Travel for Immigrants
"Poland has jumped to the top of the European house price growth league table after property values there soared 33% last year. Prices of apartments have skyrocketed and Poles are having difficulties buying them." See http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2006561,00.html Property boom hits Poland as European investors go east Some starting to talk about the hidden problems with housing. See Housing poverty in Poland
And some are saying that growth will continue. See
Poland 'set for more growth'
And with the good there always comes the bad. There are warning signs on the horizon.
Heated demand will bring inflation. And that is what the National Bank of Poland is saying. See http://www.pulsbiznesu.pl/news,145,bb8ec853-99be-4d3e-bcb3-ffa5b2c4e552.aspx National Bank of Poland warns of inflation
And an overheated economy can bring problems. See
http://edwardlucas.blogspot.com/2007/03/eastern-europes-economies-hot-and.html Eastern Europe's economies Hot and bothered
How long will it last? "Poland's economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year to 6.4 per cent, driven mainly by swiftly rising domestic demand and prompting some economists to warn it was reaching the limits of sustainable growth." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/caf5c7ae-c92c-11db-9f7b-000b5df10621,_i_rssPage=7c485a38-2f7a-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8.html Concerns over pace of growth in Poland
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