Krakow Poland
Poland's Economy In Danger As Polish Politicians Fight Over Abortion
Warsaw, Poland 16 March, 2007 The Polish Government is consumed by a bitter fight over proposals to amend Poland's Constitution to strengthen the abortion law. Behind the scenes of almost non stop press conferences and discussions about abortion, people are emigrating in droves and the negative impact of the loss of their productive capacity is dragging the economy down.
The Polish Ministry of Economy is now concerned. It suggests that the emigration will cause growth to be 3.5 percent lower than it would be had the workers remained in the country. And it says that the emigration could affect Poland's prospects for long term growth. They predict an increase in wages that could affect inflation. See
The highly charged anti-abortion campaign is not helping either the emigration or economic problems.
The television screens are plastered with angry heads making accusations and casting insults. There is nothing that shows hope or gives a young person a reason to dream in Poland. They see nothing that says that the Poland is moving forward. They vote with their job preferences and add themselves to the numbers who are leaving for opportunity and hope in the West.
Rather than focusing on economy, the President and Prime Minister have embroiled themselves in personal disputes with the head of the Roman Catholic Churches Radio Maria an the people he supports.
That the Minister of Finance has based the budget on growth projections that the European Union says may not be achievable in the long term does not seem to concern them. The forecasts for growth generally put forth are rosy and that is good news for them.
But little by little some are starting to wonder.
Economists are starting to comment that without workers, Poland cannot grow. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/caf5c7ae-c92c-11db-9f7b-000b5df10621,_i_rssPage=7c485a38-2f7a-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8.html
For the past three months, in order to attract people from the ever decreasing pool of workers, wages have increased in Poland.
Increased wages are liable to spark inflation. And that supports the National Bank of Poland's concern about inflation. http://www.pulsbiznesu.pl/news,145,bb8ec853-99be-4d3e-bcb3-ffa5b2c4e552.aspx">
The Ministry of Economy predicting that there will be a lack of educated and qualified workers.
Historically Poland has been attractive to foreign investors because of a low paid, well educated, qualified workers. With that worker pool gone, Poland will lose its main attraction. And that is a danger to the Polish economy that grows as each new person leaves for the West or wages go up to keep someone from leaving.
But that is a minor issue for now. Fighting about abortion is more important than the economy.
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