Missile In Action
Poland Likely To Accept US Missile Shield In Spite Of Polish Peoples' Opinions
Warsaw, Poland 5 February, 2007 When Polish Minister Przemyslaw Gosiewski, head of the Council of Minister's Standing Committee, said that a public referendum on the missle shield will not be held and that the decisions made on matters of defense are to be made by the Government, he signaled that the missile shield will likely be agreed to by Poland.
Were the Polish Government interested in turning down the shield, it would agree to the referendum. Such agreement would give it the excuse of saying that to the US that the turndown was in accordance with the wishes of the people. And it would be able to show the Polish people that it was working for them.
But Gosiewski seems to indicate that the Government is not be taking that path and wants the decision to be the responsibility of the Government's. The Government has done that with Poland's involvement with Iraq and he seems to say it will do it again.
It can, of course, still turn down the shield and claim that it is the will of the people.
There are two another things that one should consider.
The Russian Government is against the shield. See Russia unconvinced with US reasons for missile defense in EU
And the Prime Minister does not like outside influence. As was said in the matter of PO's request to dismiss the Minister of Transportation, "The Prime Minister does not like to make decisions under pressure." (In that case, it is thought that he will reverse his decision to dismiss the man because PO has asked him to be dismissed.)
Russia's opinion may be just enough to make the Prime Minister stand up and show that Poland makes its own decisions.
Poland will not roll over on the matter. They will negotiate with the US for the best deal. That may include asking for eased visa restrictions. See Will Poland Trade Visas For Missile Bases? And it is sure to include more.
But in the end, Poland is likely to agree to the missile base.
Update: 13:50 6 February. The negotiations may take a significant turn with the President exercising more control now that the Minister of Defense has been changed. See Poland's New Defense Minister To Be Inexperienced Political Insider
