Poland
Polish government will probably survive the Bega scandal
Classified Polnews
Warsaw, Poland September 28, 2006. Regardless of the outrage in Poland over the revelations made by Polish parliamentarian Renata Bega, it is most probable that the Polish government will survive. Were this government to fall, it would take down with it too many other political parties that would not return to the Polish parliament once new elections were held. And since personal survival in politics rules, individual members of Poland's Parliament will not vote to take down this government and end their political careers.
For the Polish parliament to be dissolved based on a resolution submitted by members of the parliament, the resolution must be supported by two-thirds of the members of parliament. To get that two thirds majority the Polish Political parties Samoobrona, PSL and other members would have to combine with the Civic Platform.
But that would mean political suicide for PSL because the election polls show that they would not be returned to parliament. So one cannot expect that to happen.
Failure to approve a budget can force new elections.
A budget will be placed before the Polish Parliament shortly and that requires an approval by a majority of the members of the Polish Parliament. The Government has for months to get enough votes in place to support the budget before new elections must be held.
Once again personal survival will prevail. People have four months to come up with reasons to support the budget.
Even now PSL said only that they suspended talks with the Law and Justice Party about the coalition. How long that suspension will last and what PSL will expect of the Law and Justice Party to end the suspension remains to be seen. But PSL knows full well that if it does not support the government and the government falls, PSL disappears or the Polish parliament.
So unless there is a major realignment of people within the Law and Justice Party, such as a group associated with former Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz forming its own parliamentary club, Poland will be in for more political posturing and more moral discussions about wheeling and dealing in hotel rooms.
But incumbency has value that will not be thrown away over morals.
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