Poland
What do the latest popularity polls for the various political parties show?
Classified Polnews
Warsaw, Poland August 9, 2006. A public opinion poll released yesterday shows the ruling coalition leading party Law and Justice with about a 6 percent margin lead over the opposition party Civic Platform. Some commentators have opined that the Civic Platform should not make nervous moves right now because it should wait for its voters to return from vacation. But is this good advice?
The polls are being run in the middle of the summer when many people are on vacation. And it is generally assumed that the people who are on vacation or are the more mobile people who tend to support the Civic Platform. So it could be that them being on vacation and not being available to the pollsters is having some effects on the numbers.
Likewise a huge number of people have left Poland to work in Western Europe. And it is assumed that a good percentage of these people are also potential voters for the Civic Platform.
So some might say that the Civic Platform actually has more support than the polls show because the polls do not reflect the opinions of these two groups of people.
But this may be dangerous thinking for the Civic Platform.
The Law and Justice Party and its coalition partners are determined to win elections and rule the country. And they have shown that they can execute and get out the voters.
The Civic Platform, on the other hand, expects people to listen to their ideas and to come to them. They have not shown a determination to get the people to the election centers.
In the fall elections of 2005 it was expected that the Civic Platform would be victorious. But it could not get out the vote.
Since that time it does not appear that the Civic Platform has done anything to organize itself better to get the vote out. It is facing a determined coalition of the Law and Justice Party, Samoobrona, and League of Polish Families that are organized to get the vote out.
So the polls may say one thing. But the people who count will be the people who go to the election centers and actually vote. And that is likely to be the people who vote for the Law And Justice Party.
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News From And About Poland
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