After the Polish government self destructs, what comes next?
Warsaw, Poland May 4, 2006 There are very few commentators, outside the Polish government itself, who feel that there will be any real longevity for the current Polish government. The coalition that has been formed by the ruling minority party Law and Justice with the radical farmers' party Samoobrona leaves everyone with the feeling that there are going to be some major changes in the near future.
The Leader of the Law and Justice Party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, had said that the country was not ready for him to be the prime minister while his brother, Lech Kaczynski, was the President. As such he put forth the current Prime Minister Kaszimierz Marcinkiewicz. But now the President of Poland has said it is not out of the question that his brother could be the Prime Minister of Poland.
Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz has been looking more like the President than the President. The Prime Minister has been very visible in the press and on television at tending hospitals, openings, and engaging in all of public relations events that one would expect of a Polish president. His popularity rating is highly and he is, in fact, the most popular politician in Poland. If there was anyone who ever look like he was on the presidential campaign trail it is Prime Minister Kaszimierz Marcinkiewicz.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, on the other hand, has been acting more like a Prime Minister than the leader of a political party. It is he who is visible in the media talking about and making arrangements for the coalition government. Though Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz is Prime Minister in name it appears that he is acting only on the direction of Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
The popularity ratings of Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his brother Lech Kaczynski have seen significant drops. Jaroslaw Kaczynski is now one of the most unpopular politicians in Poland and ranks alongside the Leszek Balcerowicz.
With the signing of the coalition agreement between the Law and Justice Party and Samoobrona the discomfort of some of the members of the Law and Justice Party with the situation is glaringly visible. The discomfort is at such a level that the Minister of Foreign Affairs resigned his position rather than to be a jester in the Court of Lord Lepper. Other people in the government are said to be very uncomfortable with the current situation.
Any political party has its factions and Law and Justice Party is no different. The Kaczynski brothers have their supporters that have been with them for a long time. Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz has his supporters whose history lies with the past political party ZCHN. This group joined the Law and Justice Party but their loyalties lie with Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz first.
Andrzej Lepper, leader of the Samoobrona political party, wants Jaroslaw Kaczynski to be the prime minister. That he would become prime minister is not out of the question and more likely probable than not. One can assume that the comment by Lech Kaczynski that his brother could be the Prime Minister is probably a low-key announcement that things will change.
Removing Prime Minister Kaszimierz Marcinkiewicz would effectively make him an enemy. It would be likely that he would take his support group and form his own political party.
Come a time that new elections are held, as is expected by most commentators, there could be a radical change in the political landscape. With the Kaczynski brothers popularity continually dropping and Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz having very high ratings, one can plausibly predict that Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz group would have a significant position in the Polish parliament. At the same time the Civic Platform is likely to have at least the same number of seats, if not more, in the Polish parliament as it has now.
One would expect that the Civic Platform and Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz would be able to form a coalition government and marginalize the Law and Justice Party.
What would be necessary to make this all happen? As long as Andrzej Lepper continues to be Andrzej Lepper one can expect turmoil in the government, more resignations, and early elections. Both Kaczynski and Lepper need a scapegoat and the most convenient man, who is also most dangerous to them, is Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz. It only takes Lepper pressing Kaczynski to start up the ball rolling down this path.
Free eBook "Starting Your Drop Shipping Business A - Z"
If you are interested in starting a business on the web, or are running a business now, you are invited to read and download this 60 page plus eBook on Drop Shipping. For more information about it and how to download it free, go to Starting Your Drop Shipping Business A - Z
Free Tutorials
Start a home business and grow it into a full time income. You don't have to search all over the web. Here are three tutorials with all the information that you need to get started.
Enter a name and email address. You will get a message asking you to confirm that you subscribed to any tutorial you choose. You can unsubscribe anytime. Your email address is used only for these tutorials and is not given to anyone for any reason.
