Poland

Bird Flu - Will It Affect The Economy More Than The People?

Warsaw, Poland 7 March 2006 - The bird flu was finally determined to be in Poland this past week. How long it has been in the country and how far it has spread is undeterminable. But because the bodies of some birds were found in the Torun area, it is possible to say it is in Poland.

The finding has given the Polish media its chance to join the growing bird flu cacophony of dire predictions tossed about by news services all over the world.

The reports about bird flu in the media in general carry a tone of hyperventilation. Take this one from Switzerland, for example.

Bird flu spreads to Poland as Austria cats infected
By Karolina Slowikowska

WARSAW (Reuters) - Avian flu extended its spread across Europe as Poland confirmed on Monday that two dead swans had the virulent H5N1 virus and Austria reported that several cats had been infected.

Experts from the World Health Organisation (WHO), meeting in Geneva, said the spread of bird flu was unprecedented and the threat of a human pandemic would not go away. http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid=6526300&cKey=1141656682000 Bird flu spreads to Poland as Austria cats infected

Compare that report to the statement by Health Minister Zbigniew Religa on the possibility of contracting the deadly bird flu virus.

"Contracting bird flu is even more unlikely than winning the lottery."

The reasoned comments by the Polish Health Minister will not tone down the media spin being put on the spread of the flu. As it continues to spread the tone is likely to become shrill. And as it becomes shriller, governments will spend more money to make the public think that they are doing something.

Governments will take those actions necessitated by the actual dangers of the flu. But they will also take those extra and perhaps unnecessary actions forced upon them by an aggressive media that is swarming and looking for bad news to report.

Inspecting and killing chicken flocks is going to be expensive. The government administrative and costs to business will be high. If there is compensation to be paid for birds killed (and possibly others as the virus mutates and jumps to other species), the costs can be huge.

The administrative costs to the government for running protection and inspection programs are likely to be significant. Costs to the health system for tests and disaster preparation will mount.

Poland's budget is, according to Finance Minister Zyta Gilowska Poland's at its limit. There is no room for any more spending after the passage bills that provide for as baby-bonuses, farmers' tax breaks on fuel and longer maternity leave.

With more bills like the pro-family tax breaks proposed by the Labor Ministry coming forward, added costs due to a spreading bird flu are likely to push the budget past the tipping point.

The flu is likely to mutate and jump to mankind. But then it is possible that if it does, it will be benign. And it may not jump.

But there is no doubt; the expenses of preparation, political defense and reaction to cases of the flu will be there. How much they will be and how much the budget will be able to take before it breaks remains to be seen.

Will the government be ready to cut the recently passes populist give away programs to pay the costs of flu protection? Will the flu pass into history and the budget be the biggest casualty of the flu?

Classified Polnews

If You Did Not Find What You Want Here, Use This Search Box