Is Poland’s Prime Minister Being Set Up To Take The Fall?
Poland’s President Lech Kaczynski called a special meeting of the Polish Government , called a Cabinet Council, on 22 February, 2006. The President said that it was primarily about two subjects – unemployment and housing. The President also said that there was a problem in that the Government was not carrying out programs promised by the President’s political party, and the President, during the election campaign.
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The opposition party, Civic Platform (PO) has been criticizing the Government for the same thing for some time now. They have pointed out that the promised 3 million new housing units are not going to be built for some time, if at all, that the proposed tax cuts have been postponed, and that the Government’s policies would result in an increase in unemployment. To make a point, PO even went so far as to proposed the PIS pre-election budget, which proposal created a government crisis solved by the signing of an amendment to the stabilization pact. PIS turned down adopting its own proposed budget.
Taken against the backdrop of recent revelations by a European Union Deputy and member of the political party Samoobrona, Ryszard Czarnecki, that the President’s brother, and head of the political party PIS, was not happy with the Prime Minister (Read About It Here), some serious political undercurrents may be in place.
Few would dispute that the person driving the direction of this government is Jaroslaw Kaczynski. And he has set the direction of the Government.
The first days of this Government driven by Jaroslaw Kaczynski have in reality been spent on putting in place programs that solidify support from some segments of Polish society and getting two minority parties, Samoobrona and League of Polish Families, to heel. Programs promised during the campaign have been delayed because of no money in the budget excuses. And part of the reason that there is no money in the budget is because of the populist programs put in place to build support.
When Czarnecki opined that Jaroslaw Kaczynski was not happy with Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz, Kacynski emphatically denied it. But then a couple days later Mr. Chairman’s brother, Mr. President calls a meeting and expresses dissatisfaction that things are not getting done.
Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz holds a high popularity rating with the Polish public. It is higher than that of either the President or his brother, Mr. Chairman, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. To replace him one would have to cut into his public report. What better way than to blame increasing unemployment and failure to build housing on him? And what better way to start than to hold an extraordinary, highly publicized meeting chaired by the President to voice displeasure.
The Prime Minister, quite possibly seeing himself being set up, said that the President himself was the best guarantor of implementation of the policies.
The Kaczynski team can expect help from other quarters. The opposition, in the form of Donald Tusk, of Civic Platform, prior to the meeting said, in a play on the President’s public pronouncement on his election, “Mr. Chairman, I report mission accomplished.”, that Marcinkiewicz should report to Jaroslaw Kaczynski: "Mr. Chairman! I report: nothing accomplished.” And there may be others close to Marcinkiewicz helping the process.
Unemployment has just been reported to have increased back above 18%. It may be seasonal, but the number is large and it is broadly based so it may be more than just seasonal. Someone is going to have to take the blame if it continues. And you can bet that it will not be either Mr. Chairman or Mr. President!
Who will take the fall? The writing is already on the wall.
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